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« Weighing the Week Ahead: What does the end of QE mean for the individual investor? | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: Time to Buy Commodities? »

November 09, 2014



Jeff, another good posting.

But I do have a minor quibble about one point. I have been to many countries around the world where the governments are incompetent and corrupt, yet remarkably good at lying to their people. I'm not saying this is the case here in the US. Just that it is possible for both things to exist at the same time.

But my more serious point is this: Has anyone done a good comparison between peak unemployment in 2009 and peak unemployment in 1982? The official numbers are that peak unemployment (U3) in the last recession was in October 2009, at 10.15%. And peak unemployment during the early 1980's recession was in December 1982, at 10.85%. News media frequently cite these numbers with not much deeper analysis.

However, the calculation methodologies in the two time periods were different. So it's an apples and oranges comparison. I've tried to find an analysis that would either use the 1980's methodology for the 2009 number, or the current methodology for the 1982 number. To compare apples to apples, so to speak. Strangely, I've not found solid research on this that I could trust. Do you have any suggestions on sources, or have you done this analysis yourself? Thanks.

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