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« Weighing the Week Ahead: A Vacation Snoozefest? | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: Will rising interest rates kill the stock rally? »

August 10, 2013



"The upside always gets under-estimated."

Err...perhaps just the opposite, as the following chart (also from Yardeni) would suggest. The upside most often starts out too high, and then adjusts downward to reality over time.


Re: the Yardeni chart... "The upside always gets under-estimated."

The following chart (also from Yardeni) would suggest just the opposite: the upside appears to be too optimistic in the vast majority of cases. To wit, in 17 of the 20 years shown, estimates were initiated too high and then had to come down subsequently.

Paul Nunes

Great work (and I have pretty much read them all)! Thank you as always for your efforts Jeff.

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