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« Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for More Volatility? | Main | The Most Expensive Investment Research is Free »

June 01, 2013


Mike Pitre

Jeff, excellent points. When you say investors should not time the market are you referring to the all in or all out comment you make above. The reason I am asking is this. Most if not all do some sort of market timing imo. When one decides to reduce exposure in one area and increase it in another that is a form of market timing is it not? Honestly Jeff in my entire lifetime I have only met one person who did not do any "timing" in that he told me he never sells anything. Or at least that is what he said. Then he lost a ton of money in the dot com bubble by refusing to sell ridiculously over priced stocks and watched them go to zero or near zero. My point is Warren Buffet is a timer, all or certainly most if not all of wall street firms time the market...yet they tell their clients to not time the market. On the other hand the vast majority of money managers can't beat the S and p index. My point is we have a strange set up here. Don't time the market is the advice...but at the same time lets make sector, industry, world, stock, etf bets one way or the other...don't time the market ...but let us have huge trading desks at our Wall Street Firm which have the sole purpose of timing the market. Then on the other hand most that do it can't beat the S and P. "Smart Money" times the market and "dumb money" times the market. I am not saying your advice is wrong. But what is your definition of timing? If it is all in or all out I totally agree that is the wrong approach. Thanks Jeff. Mike.

John the Cheap

Thanks to your previous analysis & warnings, I moved out of bond funds a while ago. I haven't commented here much (having nothing much to add), but I want to say "thanks" for your clear discussions.


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