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« The Most Expensive Investment Research is Free | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Change Course? »

June 08, 2013


Luke Fairborn

Thanks Jeff -- that does help. You are transparent in your blog. Until now, I had not fully appreciated the distinction in your blog between the sections "Trading Time Frame" and "Investor Time Frame"


Luke -- I separate the market commentary into a trader time frame and an investment time frame. It is often correct for traders to step back when there is no solid short-term opportunity.

At the same time, it may be ideal for those with a longer time frame to take advantage of selling.

I manage five different programs. Trading programs are completely out of equities at the moment and short bonds. I have a bond ladder program where we let the bonds run to maturity. My enhanced yield program works best when we get some high-volatility chances to add positions. The same is true for long-term stock investors.

I provide a lot of transparency about what I am doing. To make the best use of the ideas you need to determine your own objectives and/or divide your account into various components.

I try to make this clear in the weekly post, but your question occasionally arises. I hope this helps.


Luke Fairborn

Your blog is great and I read it weekly, but I am trying to get a better feel for your time horizon. In your June 1st blog, you wrote that Felix improved significantly, leading you to take advantage of Friday's volatility to buy on the dip. Then, a week later, you concluded that overall ratings are somewhat negative, leading you to "own no equities". While one has to change their mind as evidence changes, this type of reversal in outlook makes it difficult for a retail investor who receives your insights once a week to get the most out of said insights.


I would appreciate your adding some color to Brad DeLong's post. As I understand it (in fact Dean Baker's article was useful), he is laying out arguments for why interest rates would be raised earlier than employment numbers might suggest. Krugman has laid out his objections as to why these are imaginary fears on DeLong's part. Am I on the same page? If so, do you have an opinion on what the Fed might do and what its effects might be?


Yes! Especially given our cheering options for baseball:)

Chicagoans are looking forward to another Stanley Cup -- and a lot of excitement along the way.


Another great post Jeff, but............
let's keep the ETF's in the penalty box, and the Blackhawks out!! GO HAWKS!!


Michael Gouvalaris deserves an award for publishing the worst blog post of the year in finance. Wow. Expecting ~8% of capital appreciation per annum given current valuations isn't just unrealistic, it's idiotic.

The community can do better than referencing this sort of utter garbage.

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