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« Weighing the Week Ahead: Is There a Stop Sign at the Old Market Top? | Main | February Employment Report Preview »

March 04, 2013



Largely, throughout the course of the final 1 / 2 of the secular bull as well as the first half of the secular bear, the market is "permanently overvalued". {An individual have got discover an effective way to "invest" (trade?) despite the, whether it is determining on stocks which are "relatively under-valued", or perhaps using trend or system timing tells.
I make utilize of "dead basketball era" timing signal that has "worked" every for the duration of the before ~100 years. The difficulty through a few different pundits is the very fact that for a while they utilized post-war sets of warning signs (one that will go unnamed...), and blew the past ~5 numerous years.

Then the couple visited indicators back to the early 20th century- oops, a little tardy.

Upon top of a related note, 90% of individual investors cannot choose stocks, or perhaps will need to do so right through a portion of the collection which is very little. And/or the couple should do some index hugging, attempting to have similar diversification to a wide-ranging index with deciding on the "best" stocks.


Sounds like you're describing the market itself...

A Droyd

Whatever happened to Value Line?

kirk otis

Forward earnings are available on Yahoo, Market Watch, FinViz, Google, and Seeking Alpha. What do you see as the deficiency? Personally I find those estimates problematic because they become dated (since new info comes out) and unless the analysts update their estimates based on the new information these websites continue to average the old estimate into the mean that is reported.

It would be useful if a website were to detail the estimates (showing for example all 43 estimates for Apple, who, when,etc.) and perhaps show the google time line stock chart with the major news depicted, and overlay estimate changes. If this could be downloaded it would be awesome... as an individual could easily include and exclude data.

I would use such data and weight more recent estimates, and weight more reliable analysts.

What I find frustrating is that I can not find a decent way to look at P/E10 for segments. We get the S&P500, but what I want to know is whether a particular sector is undervalued representing an opportunity.


Basically, during the last half of a secular bull and the first half of a secular bear, the market is "permanently overvalued". You have to find a way to "invest" (trade?) in spite of this, whether it be picking stocks that are "relatively under-valued", or using trend or method timing signals.

I use a "dead ball era" timing signal that has "worked" all during the past ~100 years. The problem with some other pundits is that for a while they used post-war sets of indicators (one who shall go unnamed...), and blew the past ~5 years. Then they went to indicators back to the early 20th century- oops, a bit tardy.

On a related note, ~90% of individual investors should not pick stocks, or should do so with a fraction of the portfolio that is very small. And/or they should do some index hugging, trying to have similar diversification to a broad index with picking the "best" stocks.

Thanks for your work.


Chris Tinker

Very good Jeff.

Funnily enough that is exactly what I have already built.
Email me if you are interested to know more.

Chris Tinker

Very good, Jeff. Luckily for me I've already done it. email me if you want to know more...


"If only we could hire such a work force? How much would it cost?
Where can we find such information? Any ideas?"

I can't afford to hire a work force, so I'm building a web scraper to collect earnings data (inspired by your past articles) and other related data to put into a database for slicing and dicing. Thanks Jeff for the articles the last few months about general econ conditions. I've stayed long most of the time and am happier for it.


Wonderfuk idea. If companies paid for rhe examination service to a general fund without any tie to the examiner then the company gets a gold star and investors know it is a company they can trust in good times and bad. Think of the Carmax ad where a couple goes into a car dealer picks a car & asks for the Carmax report. The dealer doesn't have it so they walk across the street to a dealer that does. Would be hard to get the first pickle out of the jar and years to appreciate.

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