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« September Employment Report Preview | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Q3 Earnings Disappoint? »

October 06, 2012



Hi Jeff,
I find your posts informative and interesting. I hope it is OK to include your posts on a site I created to keep track of quality blogs I find useful. You can see how it looks @ below link...



That happens to me as well - although I am on the mailing list, I get alerts only occasionally.


RB -- Thanks for the link. I was on a mailing list for this, but something happened and I have not seen it for awhile.



Pacioli -- Bob says that he made his comment while looking visually at the chart rather than going back to his source data.

Here are the actual values at the crossover points.

Cycle Peak Date Unemployment Change from Year Ago
Year Month Rate (%) Basis Points
1957 Aug 4.1 0
1960 Apr 5.2 0
1969 Dec 3.5 10
1973 Nov 4.8 -50
1980 Jan 6.3 40
1981 Jul 7.2 -60
1990 Jul 5.5 30
2001 Mar 4.3 30
2007 Dec 5.0 60
2012 Sep 7.8 -120

Bob also writes that you are a sharp-eyed reader: "He is correct and I am guilty of not properly editing my words. Had I said less than -100 BP I would have been entirely correct. As it stands, it does look like I was trying to squeeze more “truth” out of the data than is really there. The next time I will rely on more than the visual which was suggested my remark in the text."

Bob stands by the basic conclusion. As to the value of his reports, I suggest that you look at a sample or two and decide for yourself.

Thanks for pointing this out, and to Bob for his correction.



Dueker is forecasting growth in employment ahead as well (assuming that the 'fiscal cliff' is resolved).


Pacioli -- I am not seeing this the same way you are, perhaps because of the thickness of the line.

It is a pretty close call in the cases you cite, but I'm sure that Bob (who is looking at the underlying data) can tell when the crossover occurs. Perhaps I can get him to comment.

Meanwhile, the main point is to look at the current reading compared to the past.



Thanks for your entry this week – a lot of interesting data points.

One concern I have is around Dieli’s chart. The caption alleges that “To date, we have not had a recession start while this line was below zero”.

Yet, a careful look at the chart shows that the ’60-’61, the ’73-’75, the ’80, and the ’01 recessions ALL started ‘while this line was below zero’.

If this source is going to be characterized as “chock-full of strong analysis” I think this glaring discrepancy should be addressed.

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