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« Weighing the Week Ahead: A Lull Before the Storm? | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: Hopes Too High for Jackson Hole? »

August 21, 2012


Schriver Pantoja

I have just heard that economic recession is not actually negative through this post, rather, as the time between a business cycle peak and a cycle trough. Just knew this research, it is good i think both sides of the story. Thanks!


Sene -- As I say every week, we have a sluggish recovery, and many want to call that a continuing recession.

Meanwhile, I am writing about investments and how to find them. The misuse of the "R" word is leading people astray.

As to the "up cycle" not being evident, I have a question for you: What important economic series are declining? (not slowing in the rate of growth, but actually declining)

Thanks for joining in!



Steve -- Yes -- it is on the agenda, which is always getting longer.

I have more interesting ideas than time to write about them.

It is probably a couple of weeks away, but I'll get there.




Maybe the word recession means something different to most. Maybe it's more than the highly technical and proper definition you offer. That box you speak from is very very small Jeff. Good luck with your up cycle that doesn't seem to be evident.


This ties into our understanding very well (after the jump) - our best estimate of where we are in the business cycle is in slowdown (between expansion and contraction). So, while growth has slowed we can't quite say we are in a recession judging by the direction and velocity of the trajectory of leading indicators. Moreover, history suggests that chances are 50/50 that we come out on the side of either expansion or outright contraction (ie recession).



Hey Jeff,

You mentioned a while back you were going to do a series on bond buying. Is this still in the works?

W at Off-Road Finance

It does seem like many analysts are offset by 1/4 to 1/2 business cycle when discussing recessions

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