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« The American Voter: Often wrong but never in doubt! | Main | Don't like the real data? Just pretend! »

April 21, 2012



Alex -- The payroll employment report is benchmarked according to the state unemployment data. This comes about 8 months later.

The Vrba method uses the best data available in any given week. It is quite advanced.

Other methods are more dependent on revised data, but Georg has geared his approach to what is available at the time, and it is excellent -- much better than those getting the publicity.

Good question, and sorry to be slow in answering.


Alex H

'Last week Dwaine teamed with Georg Vrba to analyze the unemployment rate as a recession indicator'

Based on your other articles, the unemployment rate is not accurately reported until 9 months after the initial report because of the state data has to be taken into account. I imagine this would affect the analysis and the timeliness of a recession call since the historical data from FRED would be the accurately reported state data and not the BLS estimate of the unemployment rate? Is this correct?

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