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« Investors: Read a lot, get squat! | Main | Big Market Worries: Profit Margins »

February 19, 2012



Proteus -- For short-term trading we follow Felix. We tested many inputs for Felix and sentiment did not qualify.

For long-term investments I like to use the level of the equity risk premium. When it is really high, it reflects intense skepticism about earnings.

I have never been able to find an edge from the other sentiment surveys.

I am probably (once again) in the minority.



Jeff, what's your take on sentiment? I have gotten into a bunch of arguments on this topic recently for the following reasons: 1) there are many sentiment readings and they don't agree very well (the latest Bespoke survey has 55% bearish); and 2) the predictive power isn't very good.

I could be convinced either way, but I see a lot of people trying hard to justify being short via sentiment.

Patrick M

It's not right to be calling our current and recent economic condition a "Great Recession". (*) There is nothing 'great' about it, and any 'greatness' can only be known in hindsight anyway.
Second, they officially said the recession was over some time ago, so the label doesnt make sense unless you think we ARE in recession still - but you argued for us not going back to a recession in the fall (good call!). So are we in a recession or not? It feels and is more like an eonomic malaise period, akin to the 70s malaise where we 'grew' but it didnt feel like good times. In truth, it feels to many Americans like we are still in recession because we had a subpar recovery.
So, if you want to call this the Obama Malaise or give it some other label, fine, but lets not call this last few years of economic subpar recovery 'Great'. Its anything but.
(*) PS. I think some of the impetous for calling it the "Great Recession" is for political reasons to make the era of Obama sound like the FDR era. But since FDR's era was a time of unparalleled economic misery for the country, with the longest stretch of double digit unemployment in our history, its lunacy to desire being in such an era again.


Nice work today Jeff!

Yes, slowly but surely some housing markets are improving. Not all but some for sure.

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