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« Weighing the Week Ahead: The State of the Union, Bernanke, Earnings | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: An Avalanche of Data »

January 25, 2012



"For most of the real world, having more data is valuable for planning and for setting expectations."

There is a fair amount of research that disagrees with this view. Some amount of data is generally better than none in making decisions, but substantially more data doesn't necessarily lead to better decisions. In some cases, decision making actually gets worse.

If the Fed's increasingly transparent moves don't scream "Goodhart's Law" to you, well then I guess you're not familiar with Goodhart's Law. As others have already pointed out, this transparency may backfire with respect to home buying and refinancing. The "fear" that mortgage rates could rise next year has been taken off the table, meaning that you can take plenty of time to buy/build a house or make a move on locking in a re-fi rate.

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