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« Causal Inference and False Positives | Main | Understanding the Jobs Debate »

September 03, 2011


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In a big week for data, the sluggish growth story still prevails. Calculated Risk has an interesting take on the data, suggesting that the early August numbers were worse than those reported later. It is something to think about.

james moylan

I would like to comment about Technical analysis. I have seen lots of these guys on TV. The question I have is this how do you account for something like the sudden death of a CEO of a publicly traded company or the sudden serious injury of that CEO. Or the sudden completely unexpected loss of a publicly traded companies major customer. These are totally unpredictable events in many cases in order for Technical analysis to work in cases like this it would have to have the ability to see into the future with has not yet been proven to be possible.

Daniel Muller

I always appreciate your posts and can't argue with most of what you say. You state that, "At the moment I see few similarities," with regards to 2008. I am not smart or knowledgeable enough to know how things will play out in Europe, but it does appear as if things are coming to a head. In addition, it also seems to me that the "leaders" in Europe are reacting to events rather than controlling them. They inspire little confidence that they can handle their banking and sovereign debt issues. They also don't seem to have the mechanisms to handle the problems. So...back to the 2008 analogy. Will Greece default and if so, how much do European banks have to write down the debt they own? Will the EFSF continue to buy Italian bonds even if Italy doesn't accept an austerity plan? From what I have read the most likely outcome is that indeed various banks will fail and they will be nationalized by the respective governments. Depositors will be protected but not bondholders. If so, what are the consequences? These are just a couple of the many moving parts, but the field does appear to be set for a possible chain of dominoes. Appreciate your thoughts on this matter in the coming weeks.



Thanks again for including Europe in the big picture. I read the link to events this week in Europe. Given our tendency in the US to just look at our own affairs, and given the many different and important parts of the challenges in Europe, it seems to me that there is the real possibility that unexpected, surprising news out of Europe can be a regular happening. But, will it not surprise our markets and hence, us? It's nice, at least, to be ready and kind of begin to understand the issues.

There are so many moving parts "over there" in not states, but whole countries, it's does help me see how much of a challenge they have ahead.

thanks again


It now seems to appear from ECB data that much of the recent growth in M1 comes from a shift in deposits by European institutions from European banks to US banks.

Does this change your analysis as to how the recent growth in M1 is a significant positive factor for US economy?

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