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« How to Profit from Extreme Volatility | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: What about Jobs? »

September 30, 2011



Keep in mind that the ECRI's track record hasn't necessarily been predicting recessions in "real time". In Feb 1990, they called a recession that didn't begin until July 1990. That is 5 months in advance of the recession. I think there is another earlier example as well where they called it fairly early. Not necessarily a bad thing, but something to be aware of.


RB -- Thanks for the pointer. I have been trying to highlight a number of different viewpoints. Dueker's odds are similar to most -- perhaps a touch better. You are right in observing that the approach meets the tests.




Jeff - I can tell you are optimistic, but do you believe a recession is unavoidable within the next year? Thanks and I appreciate your hard work and time you put into this blog.


John -- Thanks to you and to Bond Sales Person. I think I have fixed the problem.



For some reason the image isn't there completely. When you right click it and press "View Image" you can see the complete image.

Bond Sales Person

Hi Jeff, You do great work and I appreciate you letting me in on your thought process. This is one of the few posts that I can not follow. What is the chart showing? On my view it ends in the year 2000?


This, from Mike Dueker, is a qualified warning, but I think it meets the simplicity criterion. Still I hope that your optimistic view proves right!

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