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« Trading the 200-Day Moving Average | Main | What investors need to know about the debt ceiling debate »

July 02, 2011



Jeff -- You are way off base with this comment, as I explained patiently when you said essentially the same thing about a month ago. Perhaps you did not read the reply, so here is the link:

In that comment you rushed to judgment about Felix's bearish call since the market went up the next day. I pointed out that it is a 30-day forecast, and that is the only fair way to evaluate it.

I report the change in the 30-day forecast each week, but we run the model twice a day and act accordingly. We sold one of the inverse positions on Monday and the other on Thursday. Our trading accounts did very nicely during the month since your last comment.

Meanwhile, wearing my investor hat, we found some good opportunities for those accounts as well. The time frames are different, and our approach is different.

I try to make this as clear as possible, but if you are going to benefit from it, I urge you to read the explanation more carefully.

You want me to do a one-month forecast, and it IS a one-month forecast. Amazing....



As you say: "Stocks rose 5.4%, the best week in two years."
Yet in 'Weighing the Week Ahead" last week you said: "we are net short 40%." HUGE MISTAKE!

I keep trying to tell you that a next-week forecast is useless! You are very objective in most of your writing (which is why I continue to read you), but in this one area you seem tone deaf. Repeat, your one-week forecast is useless! Please go to a one-month horizon as your minimum time frame.


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