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« How the Individual Investor Can Trade Like a Pro | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for a Debt Ceiling Deal »

July 17, 2011



I'd like to talk macro Vs. earnings as that can easily overwhelm and quickly.

I'd be interested in a discussion of the 'debt ceiling talks' breaking down in the apparently bad way they did late Friday and the effect that will have -- unless something changes this weekend or very quickly early next week -- on the markets in the intermediate term. It has a very bad feel to me but, I usually err on the side of paranoia when it comes to trading, 'usually' one of my weaknesses.

It certainly feels like we will end up with a small 'stop gap' save here on the debt ceiling but then we have all of the uncertainty going forward, not only with the budget/debt but also with the elections and the new perception showing up in the polls that it is the Republicans who are more at fault. Since the markets in general, seem to favor Republican 'rule', that seems like a pretty big negative to me. Myself, I can always find plenty of 'blame' on both sides but also consider that this is just the way things have evolved with the big boat.

In the mean time, I'll continue to work on my simple 'follow price' trading systems and am considering putting my buy-the-dip mindset on the shelf for a while.

Ron Glandt


Still, it seems there are two very important assumptions (questions) that have to be answered regarding your very thoughtful and intellegient investment style. (You may have one of the better investing blogs on the internet). Every investment broker has to reconcile the following two assumptions or it is all ego mumble/jumble:

First assumption: There is a relationship between economies and markets.
Second assumption: Your investment style will beat longterm simple and disciplined trading of the Nasdaq 100 index on a 100 day moving average with a whiplash formula included (commissions included)

The research I have read, for example, is the Michigan Consummer Sentiment Index has no face or contrarian predictive value, if so, show me, please.

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