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« Weighing the Week Ahead: An Economic Tipping Point? | Main | The Biggest Investor Fear and How to Meet It »

June 12, 2011


Mike C

Thank you!


Mike C -- Here is the link:

I have not yet read the paper.


Mike C


Do you have link to the paper? Thanks.


JimS -- Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.



Thanks, Jeff.

For sure, "Successful results require a method that works in your planned time frame."

I recently saw a post about "momentum based trading strategy based on the work of Gary Antonacci and his paper entitled “Optimal Momentum”, which was the runner-up for the 2011 Wagner Award presented by the National Association of Active Investment Managers".

Very interesting paper.


scm - I certainly want to be clear on these points, so sorry if I was not. The ECRI does not put out a growth forecast, but Leamer is pretty pessimistic and he is at 2 1/2% plus. Malpass is more constructive and he is far from the most optimistic. This sluggish growth would still maintain good profits. The market is reflecting much worse expectations.

The key things to watch are bank lending (which I have highlighted a couple of times), employment, and housing. Improvement there could lead to more typical recovery growth, and much greater upside.

In even the best years, the market will have corrections. The SLFSI will help us avoid large and sustained moves, but not the sort of volatility that is "normal." Most investors should be focused on the major trend.

A good question -- I'll try to cover more carefully in the promised article.



Hi Jeff,

Can I put you on the spot a little? Lately I’ve found you to be offering some non-committal, two-handed econospeak. So what's /your/ call on the economic question? We've got data that are starting to break down, fast. Do you think the data will stay down, and hit market levels further? (I think your positioning in your trading vs. economic accounts is an indication, but I'd like to hear from you directly.)

A second question: ECRI is officially worsening only mildly, but lags the recent public statements of Lakshman, who is not sounding optimistic at all. The St. Louis Fed isn't indicating much alarm, either. Yet we're approaching correction territory on market levels. I know you're a data-driven guy; is the current weakness something you would normally expect your gauges to warn about?

Continuing thanks for what you do, btw.

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