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« Talking Stocks, Blogging and System in an Interview with Tadas Viskanta | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: Economic Transition from Stimulus? »

May 22, 2011



Hi Jeff,

I know you've stated that you believe the end of QE2 will be a non-event. I wonder about the program's end and its effects on liquidity, though...after all, a $600B (run-rate) buyer will be exiting the market. Isn't that, at the margin, a negative for liquidity, and money supply? You had earler stated (in the your recent "Debunking the QEII Rally" article) that the program's liquidy effects on money supply were barely enough to pace GDP growth. I mean, we've got the same deficit hole to fill in FY2012 as we did in FY2011. Won't that money need to come from the globe's existing capital, and won't that have (in theory) some knock-on effects, such as in rates, the dollar, commodities? Or does $600B not flick the needle anymore? Thanks in advance.


Jeff, love the new format for your indicators, great way of presenting the data. Very easy to follow.

For other indicators, here are a few I like:
The yield curve and the TED spread. (Already in the St Louis index.)
The ADS business conditions index.
The Barron's Confidence Index.
The Conference Board coincident to lagging ratio.

BTW, is the 30 day forecast deterministic, or is it based on your interpretation of the indicators listed?

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