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« How to Deal with a Crisis | Main | Beware the Bond Pundits! »

March 20, 2011

Comments

oldprof

Muckdog -- Nice of you to stop in and comment. I agree about gas prices. That is probably the factor in lower consumer confidence, and it might be interfering with the variable for predicting job growth. I might have to look at a statistical control.

Good points as always.

Jeff

oldprof

van -- Here are some thoughts:

1) Beware of any inference based upon two prior cases.
2) "Bearish divergence" has a sophisticated sound, but the lines in the two prior cases look rather arbitrary to me.
3) The (anonymous) author could have written the same article with the same argument three months or six months ago. Look at the chart and see what he would have said.

And most important, the market does not need to follow the economy. It depends on what is already priced in. The forward earnings right now does not compare to 2000 in any way. 2007 is a case of its own.

Thanks for the pointer.

Jeff

van

any thoughts on these ECRI charts?


http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/2011/03/ecri-weekly-leading-index.html

Intrinsic

Thanks, just keep in mind to beware of catching a falling knife :)

Muckdog .

Good summary of what's going on, Dr. Jeff!

Maybe we've defined the trading range for a bit, eh? Economic growth looks steady. Oil prices are a concern as gasoline prices may frustrate some folks. Have a couple things working on oil pressure: Middle East and increasing US demand with economic growth.

Lots of external news risk out there, but that seems temporary compared to the underlying trend of the US market - which is up.

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