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« Weighing the Week Ahead: A Time of Tension | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Rising Energy Prices Derail the Economy? »

March 30, 2011


Alex Hung

So many have been informed now! thanks for such a great writing.

Andrew H

Jeff, thanks for taking the time to reply. I follow you through my Google Reader feed and like your output. It strikes me as balanced. It is not just JM but people like Bill Gross seem to believe that the bond market will experience some form of dislocation forcing rates higher. Not to mention Gary Shilling's Age of Deleveraging. I also follow Seeking Alpha, even though it tends to have a very US biased and I live and work in the Far East. I would guess that for every article taking one viewpoint there is another taking the opposite. For the layman investor trying to manage his or her financial future it is easy to see how they can get into analysis paralysis. Those of us in our mid 50s don't have the luxury of time to get it wrong. I have been a reasonably sensible saver over the years but looking for a decent income stream without putting much capital at risk is tough. Capital volatility I can stand but there is also a fear that by being relatively fully invested you could miss out on the opportunity of another looming collapse and a trip to the bargain basement - cash is king and all that - but if I go to cash I can miss out on the QE2 (QE3?) fuelled next leg up of the bull run. In 30 odd years I have never seen more challenging markets to read.


Andrew -- I have not yet read his book, but I know the general thesis from his weekly letter and various interviews. I have not yet decided whether to read and/or review the book.

John has an excellent business model, building up a massive following by seeming very reasonable and concerned -- like a friendly neighbor. Having said this, he has taken the gloomy side of nearly everything. He almost never includes any bullish analysts in his reports or conferences.

On the bond market, I think the concept of "on strike" is just wrong. It is a deep and liquid market and moves take some time.

At least you have investments. There are many who have a ZERO stock allocation. I have met few clients for who that was the right amount.

Good question -- one on the minds of many.


Andrew H

I guess what confuses me is the "current data" and the "Endgame" outlook of those such as John Mauldin. I read his book and it is very alarming. I am almost scared to do anything now! Does it matter if the corporate sector is improving if the unemployment outlook continues to be bleak and the major economies are heading towards the day when the bond markets go on strike? Doesn't sentiment then drag virtually everything down with it across most markets - call it contagion or correlation but where do people invest for capital preservation with even a modest yield, which inflation may eat away anyway. I am reasonably well invested and not trying to time the markets but every day I find myself wondering whether it is the time to exit equities. I hold some corporate debt and a reasonable slug of cash. Fear - absolutely!

downtown josh brown

thanks Jeff! great post, important stuff in there


Very nice post today Jeff.

Keep the eye on the doughnut and not the hole!!!

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