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« Asset Allocation: It is not like Poker! | Main | What the Obama Economic Changes Mean for Investors »

September 12, 2010



Excellent work Jeff!


Jeff P -- One of my favorites from S&G.

There are hundreds of trading systems for shorter time frames, including nano-seconds. Are the successes real or another case of fooled by randomness?

All I can say is that we have had good luck with our sector approach, mostly momentum with a three-week horizon. It only takes a small edge to do pretty well. Meanwhile, we all start the trading week with an idea. I am just more open about recognizing it. Our positions can change quickly.

So I agree with you, especially about academic research. Anyone who can do this is not writing it up for a journal.

Good points, and thanks.



Thanks, Keith!



There is Good and the Bad regarding your post.
1. The Good: Your story related to confirmation bias was very interesting and confirmation bias is truly a pervasive influence that wreaks havoc with investors' performance results. In this vein, I like the lines from "The Boxer" by Simon and Garfunckl:
"All Lies and Jests
Still a Man Hears What He Wants to Hear,
And Disregards the Rest."
2. The Bad: Are you serious that you think you can make credible weekly forecasts? I like your posts related to longer-term market forecasting, but wouldn't you admit that there is no credible academic research that has identified any reliable fundamental or technical indicators that are good short-term (one month or less) market forecasting tools?

Jeff P.

Keith Piccirillo

Nice work Jeff!

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