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« Using Forward Earnings | Main | The IMF Suggests A Trade »

September 01, 2010


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I also adopt that approach of comparing forecast from different sources, with this we are able to see clearly whats missing and what needs to be done.


If I understand your estimate of -90,000, if the census bureau laid off 115,000, you would be expecting a net gain in the private and public sectors of +25,000. Is this correct? Thanks for your post.


That is right! Sorry..I missed it. Very informative post, btw. Thank you.


SR -- In the paragraph starting "Turning back to the current month" I note that we are looking for a net loss of over 90K. (It is actually 95K, but I do not like to imply a false sense of precision).

I could have highlighted this better.




I probably lost you somewhere but I didn't actually see your estimate. One of your section is titled "Our own estimate". But then I don't see an estimate and I see that you have mentioned " not a forecast, per se, since we do not posit any causal relationship among these variables." So maybe you don't give an actual forecast, and this is more about just tying the pieces of various relevant indicators together and comparing with some of the current forecasts? Sorry if I missed a number that you actually gave above. Could you please clarify?

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