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« Wall Street Myths and Truthiness | Main | Extending the Bush Tax Cuts: The Kauffman Poll of Economic Bloggers »

August 02, 2010



Mike C - Thanks for the update. It seems as though few have changed positions and thanks for highlighting Saut.

Thanks also to 'Numb' for his additional discussion on comparing time frames.

As he says, there is a data mining risk...

I appreciate your answer to the question. Unfortunately, those who should be answering are silent:)

With a chuckle..


comfortably numb

Interesting observation, Mike C

I am focusing on another overlay - from bottom in Mar 03 all the way to mid-May 08. Put it against the run from Mar 09 bottom to current - they look like twins, only the second one needs some 4x stretching in time. From these it looks like we are to break down, well maybe after another few pct higher

Both probably just data mining :)

Mike C

A Few Questions

When I left on my trip, there were various predictions about the imminent demise of stock prices. It would be interesting to see if anyone has a revised opinion based upon the change in the data. Since I have only had time to read about facts, not opinions, perhaps my readers can help out.

Has anyone changed opinions with the changing evidence on the following:

The Dow Theory Sell Signal
The 200-day moving average crossover in the S&P
The Death Cross (probably not reversed yet?)
Dr. Copper
Earnings misses due to excessive optimism
Euro/Dollar parity leading to collapse of European Union and all stocks
Elliott wave pattern -- presumably has been adjusted?
At least some of the doomsayers from only two weeks ago seem to be on the wrong side. Have any remained true to their indicators and changed their viewpoint, or have they found new sources of skepticism?

I am interested in two different camps:

Those who had bearish takes on one or more of the indicators and changed opinions with the change in the data;

Jeff Saut has reversed back to bullish and said we've gotten a Dow Theory Buy Signal:

I know a few other strategists who specifically mentioned the technicals look bullish but that the fundamentals still look bad or "headwinds" as you put it.

Interestingly, to my eye the chart from the beginning of May through present looks like a microcosm of the chart from Oct 2008 through May 2009 (the flash crash is the Oct 08 move, the 1040 low is the November 2008 low and the 1010 low is the March 2009 low with the same bearish sentiment). If the parallel holds, we are starting another upleg here.

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