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« Weighing the Week Ahead: The Chartists Take Over | Main | Revisiting the List of Worries »

July 06, 2010

Comments

oldprof

Billy -- I agree with your observation about John Mauldin. He indicated in these comments an interest in talking, so I sent him an email. He called a couple of times and we had very constructive conversations.

His weekly letter captures the personality from his conversation. I am delighted that he was willing to work so hard on the data. Mostly, it helps to get more to focus on the real problems.

I do not do a separate newsletter, but you can subscribe to "A Dash" via RSS or email.

Thanks for your comment.

Jeff

Billy Jalbert

Gotta give Mauldin a lot of credit for taking your feedback and posting it. He's flat out a good guy and quite frankly, thus far, he's been more accurate than most in the past 4 years or so. I'm very much a layperson. Econ minor in college, entrepreneur / small business owner and now a Realtor. I find Mauldin's stuff accessible and interesting, even if I don't agree with some of his political assessments / opinions. I recognize he isn't the Bible and appreciate your corrections.

As for the name dropping. Funny, I'm pretty sensitive to name droppers and I never felt like he was doing that. I thought he was "advertising" and just telling about his life. I've always been a bit naive, but I thought he was just sharing. He's a pretty neat story. Glad I have now found you as a resource. Do you have a subscription format as well?

oldprof

tiger -- Dr. Hussman is a likable, intelligent, and very persuasive person who has built an extremely successful business.

I am answering your question because I think I understand the spirit in which you ask it. You are interested in an evaluation of some Hussman theories.

Mostly I disagree with what I see as a fixation on past earnings instead of trying to look ahead. Rather than anticipate here, let me just say I am working on an article on this subject.

Jeff

oldprof

jdb - I completely agree with your attitude about Mauldin, the person. It is something that I always try to uphold in my analysis. It is never personal. It is about data.

And for other helpful participants who do not like the Mauldin style ---

There is a fine line in how much personal information one reveals in a blog or newsletter. Whatever you choose to do, some will agree and some will not like it.

Thanks to everyone for some helpful and sensitive comments.

Jeff

oldprof

John M -- Thanks for calling. I enjoyed our conversation. I appreciate your willingness to review data in an effort to provide good analysis.

I hope that some of my observations and the reports I sent you will be helpful in your work. As I noted, your influence is widespread and the topic is a difficult one.

Thanks for stopping here and for initiating contact.

Jeff

jdb

Thanks.

I was going to write and ask you to do just this-evaluate what Mauldin wrote on unemployment. As some have mentioned, I have listened to him for years, but have thought that he is struggling like everyone else to understand what is going on the last few years. You read his stuff, but just don't get much understanding. And I have been skeptical about his work on unemployment. Yet, I think he is a good guy, doing the best he can. Maybe this gets too personal, but he has adopted kids from all over the world and provided them a good home. This gets him a lot of credit in my book.

John M

Ouch! I know B/D is NSA. Jeff, I would like to talk. If I am off, then I will retract. and Proteus, sorry to have fallen from Grace. :)

John

Proteus

Jeff:
Thanks for the continuing discussion of the employment data. There is still much misinformation out there.

When I started reading Mauldin a decade ago, I thought he was a god. He has gradually fallen from grace, and is now unreadable, for some of the same reasons you cite. He is a friend of every well-known bear - bulls apparently need not apply. Despite his claiming to be middle-of-the-road, bullish news is overlooked. Poor forecasts and errors are never corrected. However, it was worth every penny of the subscription cost.

How to correct errors in economic blogs? Comments just don't seem to work.

John the Cheap

After reading Mauldin for quite a while, I have to admit I've stopped bothering. He seems to exhibit a persistent bias and while there might be some useful info there, it's too much trouble to winnow out the value from the chaff. Besides, his chatty name-dropping style irks me, and who gives a !#$%^ where his daughter is vacationing (or whatever).

Kevin

Very nice analysis - thank you.

tiger

what do u think of John Hussman?

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