My Photo
Note: Jeff does not accept guest blog posts on A Dash of Insight.

For inquiries regarding advertising and republication, contact [email protected]

Follow Jeff on Twitter!

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner


  • Seeking Alpha
    Seeking Alpha Certified
  • AllTopSites
    Alltop, all the top stories
  • iStockAnalyst
Talk Markets
Forexpros Contributor
Copyright 2005-2014
All Rights Reserved

« Art Laffer and the Triumph of Politics | Main | Understanding the Employment Issue »

June 12, 2010



Thanks for the help. I have seen a number of sources of speculation, and I am interested in anything with more authority.


Vittorio Mazzolata

Re: "I agree that the continuing claims news seems positive, but I do not have a good historical basis for interpreting the data series."

Continuing claims is a leading indicator of the unemployment rate (see last 3 cycles of continuing claims vs. the unemployment rate -- once a coincident indicator and twice a leading indicator).

Vittorio Mazzolata

"In summary, evidence from simple tests suggest that ECRI WLI movements coincide with or slightly trail stock market behavior, offering little trading intelligence over the short or intermediate terms."

From Secrets of Successful Speculation By Ulrich Peter Krach:

"The components of the ECRI weekly leading index are money supply plus stock & bond mutual funds, the JOC-ECRI industrial materials price index, mortgage applications, bond quality spreads, stock prices, bond yields, and initial jobless insurance claims."

U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI)


you got right future is coming like freight train down to a broken bridge


Vittorio -- I agree that the continuing claims news seems positive, but I do not have a good historical basis for interpreting the data series. The initial claims series is overemphasized by many, but I have found it to be a useful indicator.

As to the ECRI index makeup, they have a proprietary indicator. I have seen speculation about the elements. Are you sure that the stock market is part of it? Please post or send me a source.

Thanks for your comment.


Vittorio Mazzolata

Re: “Initial jobless claims were supposedly a positive.  I do not get it.”

The continuing claims declined from 4.717 mln claimants from the week ending May 22 to 4.462 mln for the week ending May 29.

This is a significant drop – big positive.

Re: “ECRI”

Stock market performance is one of the components of ECRI. I am perplexed as to why everyone freaks out over ECRI decline during ~14% stock market correction.

The comments to this entry are closed.