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« Target Prices | Main | ETF Update: When System and Reason Diverge »

January 13, 2010

Comments

Mark

many observers may not be anticipating the impact on the business cycle that that may have over and above the natural demand factors for technology

Mark

oldprof

Thanks, KT!

You have a good point about how to look at different perspectives.

Jeff

oldprof

Venn -- I'm sure you are correct. I have to keep reminding myself to focus on my actual audience.

My instinct is to try to offer something that will help all comers. The idea of doing a little of something to hedge your position is sound, but so is your advice.

Thanks,

Jeff

KT

I thoroughly agree with your insights. Many short term players may not agree with this idea - thinking that the market has gone too high too fast and waiting for major pullback. Most are influenced by comparison with pasts - which never experienced the unimaginable starring at the brink of the abyss in 2009. Sure there will be consolidation along the way, but I think the general trend is up.

I believe most retail players are still underinvested.

The bests comment of yours:

"Investors have trouble buying stocks that are well off of the lows. This is a mistake. Few people call an exact bottom in any stock. At some point, the fundamental story becomes attractive. Some of my biggest successes came after I waited for real evidence – not buying the bottom, but picking a time of lower risk. "

Have a good year in 2010.

VennData

"...A few big winners can help you if your overall political viewpoint is incorrect..."

Speaking to these people is hopeless. They act as if they cannot believe for a moment that their "political viewpoint" is anything but 100% right, fed by the sophistry of the politicotainment industry.

Though you haven't heard "Socialism" for a couple of weeks, or complaints about "the end of the dollar" the meme now is "The End of America."

Randy

"stocks are not GDP futures" AMEN

Chris Tinker

Hi Jeff - Happy New Year. Unfortunately I agree with all of the above - which is clearly going to worry a contrarian such as yourself! One theme that I would add to the above is the impact on credit creation that the normalisation of asset markets is set to cause. With billions being raised in IPOs in emerging markets and credit markets very clearly back open for business in terms of capital raising by corporates, many observers may not be anticipating the impact on the business cycle that that may have over and above the natural demand factors for technology etc. that you have already identifed.

best of luck in 2010


Chris

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