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« ETF Update: Hope for Homebuilders? | Main | Anatomy of a Trade: How to Play Apple »

December 07, 2009



Thank you for a thoughtful explanation and for debunking the conspiracy theorists' response to all surprizes, particularly upside surprizes. I also agree with your hypothesis in "Dumbing Down the News" and believe it has a major affect on the conspirators' thought processes.


I think that until the govt deals with the basic structural problems in the financial system of too much debt, we will not have a sustainable recovery. So while the stock market can stay irrational in the shorter term, in the long run I believe it will go back to reflecting the fundamentals of our boom and bust economy. And that's why I continue to feel that for long term investors a better portfolio allocation is in cash, gold, and gold mining companies. One company I especially like is Premier Gold, which has announced several high-grade gold discoveries at its exploratory Hardrock Project in Canada. I read a good summary of these results at Premier Gold's Success at Hardrock Continues , which also discusses how its CEO has not bet the fate of the company on just one gold project, and how the gold miner still offers a lot of leverage to the gold price. I think that the Federal Reserve and Bernanke are going to continue to try to do whatever they can to avoid deflation through money printing, and I think gold stands to continue to be the ultimate beneficiary of this trend.


As usual, insightful and informative. You deserve a gold star.


Grasp - The trend is for better (less bad) numbers, in line with what we are seeing from other indicators like ISM and jobless claims. The improvement is coming more slowly and from a lower level than the recent reports would seem to indicate.

Thanks for helping me clarify this.



Thank you for you insight, I look foward to reading the "more to come" part. I understand your points, and I will have to study your work more. If you get a chance, could you explain where you believe the trend is headed. I understand that you disagree with the number, but where, in your best estimation are we headed? Thanks for you time.


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