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« Investors are Reaching -- and Making Big Mistakes | Main | Bias in Bernanke Coverage: Does it Matter? »

December 02, 2009


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This is a nice report review. Well done. That's alot of net job loss.


Tom - The payroll report estimates jobs at establishments. The unemployment report surveys people. Some people hold more than one job. Others may view themselves as employed even when their job does not show up in the establishment measure. The two series can therefore diverge at times, although the trend is the same.

As to your "if they agree" question -- the BLS has already acknowledged the problem in the preliminary benchmark report. They have a standard procedure for updating the B/D adjustment. Whether they are contemplating a more significant change in methods, I don't know.

We have to remember that this method worked very well for many years. It might be OK once credit conditions are more normal.

Good questions -- thanks.



What would have been the unemployment rate at -175k?

What will happen if they agree their job creation factors are flawed?


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