My Photo
Note: Jeff does not accept guest blog posts on A Dash of Insight.

For inquiries regarding advertising and republication, contact [email protected]

Follow Jeff on Twitter!

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Certifications

  • Seeking Alpha
    Seeking Alpha Certified
  • AllTopSites
    Alltop, all the top stories
  • iStockAnalyst
Talk Markets
Forexpros Contributor
Disclaimer
Copyright 2005-2014
All Rights Reserved

« Who Knows about Home Prices? | Main | ETF Update: Surprising Strength in Austria »

August 22, 2009

Comments

Richard3

Keep up the good work Jeff!

Michael

Yes, the market has become much more expensive,and may consolidate a bit from where it is now.

However, using a good market timing system can help an investor profit both from the upside and downside of this market.

Consider http://invetrics.com Its daily DJIA index trading signal switched to Long last Friday just before market open and allowed investors to profit from the sharp move higher.

The signal is up a respectable 52% for the year (as of 8/23/09) and it is free of charge for individual investors.

oldprof

Steve -- Thanks for pointing out the comment. I have submitted a reply at the econbrowser site.

kharris is not accurately describing what the B/D adjustment is intended to do. In particular, this statement is not correct:

"However, the birth/death plug is meant to be a net figure, between jobs created at opening firms and jobs lost at closing firms."

If you have read all three parts of my series, you understand that the B/D adjustment is a residual, not the entire process. The imputation step is very sensitive to economic conditions.

In my recent visit, the BLS experts called the B/D adjustment a "base". As the data from their papers show, it is always a positive adjustment, throughout the business cycle.

I covered this pretty carefully in part 3.
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2009/08/the-employment-report-and-the-birthdeath-adjustment.html
The BLS data on the stability of the residual target is compelling.

Thanks again.

Jeff

Steve

Jeff,

Can you respond to the last comment in the Econbrowser thread you linked: http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/08/links_for_20090_5.html

Is that true what kharris said?

The comments to this entry are closed.