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« Who Knows about Home Prices? | Main | ETF Update: Surprising Strength in Austria »

August 22, 2009



Keep up the good work Jeff!


Yes, the market has become much more expensive,and may consolidate a bit from where it is now.

However, using a good market timing system can help an investor profit both from the upside and downside of this market.

Consider Its daily DJIA index trading signal switched to Long last Friday just before market open and allowed investors to profit from the sharp move higher.

The signal is up a respectable 52% for the year (as of 8/23/09) and it is free of charge for individual investors.


Steve -- Thanks for pointing out the comment. I have submitted a reply at the econbrowser site.

kharris is not accurately describing what the B/D adjustment is intended to do. In particular, this statement is not correct:

"However, the birth/death plug is meant to be a net figure, between jobs created at opening firms and jobs lost at closing firms."

If you have read all three parts of my series, you understand that the B/D adjustment is a residual, not the entire process. The imputation step is very sensitive to economic conditions.

In my recent visit, the BLS experts called the B/D adjustment a "base". As the data from their papers show, it is always a positive adjustment, throughout the business cycle.

I covered this pretty carefully in part 3.
The BLS data on the stability of the residual target is compelling.

Thanks again.




Can you respond to the last comment in the Econbrowser thread you linked:

Is that true what kharris said?

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