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« Analyzing Cash for Clunkers | Main | The Employment Report and the Birth/Death Adjustment »

August 05, 2009


john clark

TrimT -488
Insight -441
Wanted -440
Consensus -350

What number looks most "off" here? All different methodologies used, could BLS, with all it's known flaws be right this time, and all the others are real wrong? If you throw out the outliers Trimtab and BLS and average the rest it's 400 which would mean the BLS was 40% low with their monthly prelim est and they are off 40% or more half the time with the monthly estimates I've seen.


I see that you did see the TrimTabs commentary...

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