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« A Winning Trade: Anticipating Geithner | Main | Why There is No Bottom: Economic Forecasts »

March 01, 2009


Vakantie Links

Interesting post. Thank you.

Mike C

"What is your interpretation?"

Not sure, but reading through some feels like looking at the "man in the mirror". Some seem highly plausible to me while some seem to reflect a level of extreme pessimism that is off the charts. To borrow your term, I do think we are in a "negativity bubble".

I generally put myself in the camp that "it is never different this time". If you'll recall from past comments I made in the late 2006/early 2007 time frame, I was generally bearish based on valuations (based on trailing numbers like Shiller's P/E) and what I thought was an unsustainable earnings level due for mean reversion (which was the correct view although frankly I am shocked by the magnitude of the reversion and overshoot). I never thought "it was different this time" on the upside.

Funny how things change, as I now instinctively want to believe "it is not different this time" on the downside, and that valuations are low and earnings will eventually rebound substantially (mean reversion to the upside) and I find myself on the other side of commenters on Barry's blog who seem to believe that the most probable outcome is the complete obliteration/annihilation of the U.S. economy and stock market. It is an echo chamber of smug bearishness which reflects the sorts of answers in the above survey.

28% unemployment? Really? Really? Just seems ridiculous.

I keep thinking money is made fading the consensus view, and the consensus view seems to have completely switched from complete optimism 18-24 months ago to almost a deathwatch type of pessimism.

I find these guys always have thought-provoking pieces with alot of data support:

Is the consumer dead?


Mike C -- I do not characterize it as either smart or dumb. It does show the impact of many of the themes I have been writing about, and is an interesting counterpoint to the regular "scientific" polls.

What is your interpretation?


Mike C

What is your interpretation of this survey? "Smart" money seeing where things are headed? Got the GE dividend cut right. Or "dumb" money providing useful contrary information. Long stocks and short gold, or short stocks and long gold?

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