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« Who is in Charge? | Main | ETF Update: Can Networking Stocks Bounce Back? »

January 17, 2009


NFL Jerseys

I think you have tagged the most likely scenario.

stock market

I agree that great gains happen during a recession. The Stock market is offering great investment opportunities. As Jeff said, it is only a matter of finding the right investments to succeed in stock trading. The stock market is always in fast pace, gains and losses happens every day, recession or not.
Also, there should be a right balance of saving and spending. Consumers are tightening their belts to save more however, they forgot that consumption is the most essential fuel that makes our economic system running.


Bernanke is wrong, Fisher was right and deflation is inevitable?


Do not fight the Fed?

Bill Luby

Nice summary, Jeff. I may be biased because I agree with almost everything you said, but even if everything does not turn out as you anticipate, I think you have tagged the most likely scenario.

Cheers and best wishes for a healthy and profitable '09,



The weakness of your analysis is that it is almost entirely US-centric, as if only domestic factors and policy decisions will affect American prosperity. A full picture has to take Europe and China into account. It's useful to read the blogs of Brad Setser and Michael Pettis, and Naked Capitalism, among others.

A global depression is by no means off the table. In fact, unless things turn around very soon, it will be inevitable. Despite everything, I agree with you about RIG and AAPL and gingerly stepping back into the market, in part because cash is not king in the coming inflationary depression (not an oxymoron!).

Joe Market

A new wave of alt-A mortgage resets will begin hitting in the 3rd quarter lasting two years. Unemployment is still rising leading to more foreclosures. Credit will tighten and the pool of potential buyers is shrinking because of current foreclosuers and unemployment. Demographics are also working against the housing industry. Population growth had peaked in the fifties. This whole mess is what is called a negative feedback loop. It will get uglier before it gets better and will last a long time

Contrarian Profits

After falling 35% in 2008, US stocks are now trading at only 10.6 times forecast earnings, well below the historical average. But are they good value yet? Martin Hutchinson says it will depend on the sector and country. He offers his financial advice by picking the biggest bull and bear markets for 2009.

stock investment

Managing your money so that you can prevent it from risks is critical to achieving the most profit. Management is an important aspect of stock market trading. Before you begin to trade stocks, you need to have a plan of what to do with the profits and how to grow your nest egg.


No more dominoes falling.

Oh really? Then why exactly did we prop up BAC and C last week? Healthy, solvent business do not require cash injections from the American taxpayer.

I value and respect your opinion, I honestly do. You are the counterpoint to all of the bearish blogs in my RSS reader, which is exactly why I read you - to provide some balance.

But just as some bears are over doing it by calling for the next depression, you sometimes suffer from "Kudlow-itis".

We have 30 years of loose credit and over capacity to work off....that isnt going to happen in 12 months.


Well done. The background negativity about Obama is breathtaking. If you go head to head, intelligence-wise vs. Bush. Who wins?

At the end of Bush/Cheney, Cheney is running around saying how "right" he was. Can you see Biden doing something like that? Never. Cheney is making a fool of himself, while his country club, Federalist Society, Stop-Stem-Cell buddies are all down 40%.

The quiet, right wing investor frustration at Bush is comical. They supported him every step of the way, but the Dow is down over 20% during Bush's two-term catastrophe. Now, their emotional worldview is repeating itself: the same denial in '92 they got from listening to Rush Limbaugh, Hannity, FOX News, the GOP media machine... who said Clinton was going to ruin the economy, will be wrong... again.

The right wingers will miss this opportunity... again.

They're susceptible to the same daily, anti-Clinton (...anti-Obama?) nuttiness we had to live through in the 90's. They're sitting on their cash. They will under perform while we make money as they listen intently to more garbage about birth certificates, Obama's "muslimism" the UN, Hillary at State... Eric Holder... etc... etc...

Shout out to wingnuts: Buy now. Remember how Clinton left you in the dust last time? ...while everyone else made money? Obama's going to do the same, because American always bounces back. The good news for rational investors is they will not listen. They will cling to their Rove media pieces and WSJ editorial page spin. They want "revenge" on "the Clintons..." Get them in the confirmation hearings! The Clinton's ruined American! Marc Rich! Clinton pardoned... a criminal! Ahhh! ...hahaha.

That's an opportunity.

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