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« Whom Should We Trust? | Main | How NOT to Think about Your Investments »

October 07, 2008

Comments

adam

good stuff.

I think part of it is the Program of the Day and/or Rule Change of the Day. In a sense I think they slowed it down with the daily announcements. Which I think in hindsight is a good goal in that you expect to catch a real bid at some point. In practice though, it seems to have just delayed it.

mawa

Mike's analysis, and this other blogger I came across via DB (see comment below from DB) contain some reinforcing thoughts about the market.

The financialblogger has called today for a fed action, and ALSO a bottom and/or a move up tomorrow Friday 10-10-2008.

One nugget he mentions is remark on volume. Detaile below.

Financialtraders Blogger pushes for Treasury department to announce a plan in which they would indicate that they would take a position in the stock market as a whole.

Market should move big tomorrow 10-10-2008.

Commodity Trader

Well written! you are so right...the media loves this and this is their "food"!

Markets always move both ways in an extreme manner. We might look back in a few years and realize that might have been an opportunity to buy assets in really deflated prices.

Jeff

Mike - I'll have an article on that topic soon. Most people looking at this have a "top down" method, which often means they have no method -- just a guess, or a simple equation.

Jeff

Mike C

"For those of us who manage long-only programs this has been a once-in-a-lifetime disaster. It is not like 1987, which we experienced. The starting point was not a wildly over-valued market."

I'd be curious what your stance/thoughts are now in terms of overall market valuation looking out 5-10 years from the current index level?

How undervalued are we?

VennData

...don't forget strong market participants going after the weak hands, where ever they may be. Story lines about official's speaking times and who-nationalized-what-on-what-terms obscures the bullying going on process.

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