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« Waiting for the Right Pitch | Main | Important Considerations and Our Agenda »

October 15, 2008


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I agree. I won’t try to pick a bottom right now. I believe this is one of the biggest financial meltdown in history. I don't know what to invest, where to invest and how to save my money.
Playing in a market where banks are collapses, hedge fund liquidations and such other volatile things are happening is really dangerous.

Poppa Bear

I wouldn't try to pick a bottom right now. We're probably witnessing the biggest financial meltdown in history.

Should anyone be playing around in a market with bank collapses, hedge fund liquidations, and the massive unwinding of the quatrillion dollar derivatives bubble?

No one has ever seen anything quite like this and there is really no way of knowing what will collapse next or what the next collapsed entity will affect.

The dollar will eventually collapse and I think that'll be a rude awakening for everyone.

This is a good article on what Warren Buffet is doing with his Treasury holdings...


many tanks.

Got even worse today. They added a new feature, saying they were going "short" the VIX at 80. Um, can't actually do that, Octs are the closing thing and they were "only" high 60's at the most, and all you get is 3 days play and cashed out.

All of course forgetting those great signals at VIX 30 and 40 and .......

Bill aka NO DooDahs!

The high levels of the VIX have only been appropriate to the high levels of actual volatility. There's been no "excessive fear" signal from the VIX during this selloff.

With the VIX, I used different estimators of volatility in the index, things like different length lookbacks of ATR or Bollinger Band width, as the independent variable in regression vs. the VIX, and used the error term as my indicator of "pure sentiment" decomposed from the actual volatility. The implicit assumption, which is robust in my opinion, is that the VIX as an estimate of future volatility is heavily influenced by recent actual volatility.

Other measures of sentiment such as breadth of participation have signaled bottoms already - several times!

The technicals are FUBARed by all the forced selling. It has got to make it worrisome for the discretionary trading crowd (with exception of daytraders who are probably loving it - provided they're not "providing liquidity" in their systems).

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