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« Economic Data and the Employment Report | Main | ETF Update: Homebuilders on the Rise? »

August 01, 2008



Black -

I am surprised by your confidence. Many of the macro measures have been bouncing along at the same levels, most notably employment and ISM. There are many commentators who do not yet feel that activity has reached recession levels.

I do not know how future revisions will play out, but neither do you.

My mission is not to rub anyone's nose in anything. It is to encourage objective interpretation of data.

But since you went on this course, what indicators do you see as declining, rather than bouncing along a bottom. By this I mean worse right now than they were a few months ago.....

As usual, I appreciate your viewpoint.




"If you think that yesterday's data had a clear-cut message, you missed the point. Take a step back and look again.?

I'd be interested to hear about the "silver lining"....

"Those with a mission pick the adjustment that fits the viewpoint. Sometimes it is inventories, which can be viewed in different ways. "

Yes.....but it is hard to deny that in the aggregate, meaningful macro measures have been on a disquietingly aggressive downward trend....

"The recessionistas did not get the negative GDP number they wanted, so they object to the methodology."

Jot this down, and feel free to rub my nose in it in 5 months........

There will be further downward revisions to GDP, and the economic situation will be worse in December than it is now.....and it won't have reached bottom.....

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