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July 11, 2008


Commuting Distance

Conspiracy theories need and feed ignorance:

Admittedly offtopic (economics here, Venezuela there) but it gives a parallel construction that may serve in future web encounters.

There is a follow on piece that highlights a typical indicator:


There are always a lot of kooks around, best to view them for entertainment only.


RB. I have been traveling and had not yet caught up with Mauldin's latest. As he often does, he is willing to use some common sense to challenge the face validity of these numbers.

Most people hearing or using them have no sense of context.

As usual, thanks for your contribution!



Mauldin had something to say on this as well:
"A quick sidebar. I am often asked what I think about the inflation numbers produced by John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics. His number, using the methodology to figure inflation that existed in the late 70s and early 80s suggest that inflation in the US is over 11%. That certainly corresponds to what many of us feel like as we see food and energy prices rise. If you are bearish, a high inflation number makes your case easier.
But let me make a few of you mad. I think what Williams' number actually do is show that the government did not know how to calculate inflation back then. If inflation were actually 11.8%, then that would mean that GDP was a negative 6% today, and that the US would have been in a recession for several years. That is obviously not the case. You can simply look at corporate profits and tax receipts to see the economy has been growing the past five years."

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