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« ETF Update: Nuclear Takes the Lead | Main | Government Conspiracies and Your Money »

June 02, 2008


Barry Ritholtz

What's my prize?


To David Merkel's point Gene Epstein of Barron's - Economic Beat - has also claimed sub-50 diffusions (47 or 48) are positive.


Briefing's criticism of the ISM index is a bit lame. ECRI does not use this in isolation but as one of the components of their leading indicators. see for example,


I value your analysis, but find your contest somewhat worthless. Barry could be posting a bearish commentary, but still could be 100% invested in Oil, IBM or Mastercard.

Also, once you have built up a large base of followers, it would be foolish not to live up to their expectations. While markets may demand to change your opinion all the time, most successful media outlets thrive by specialized compartmentalization.

However it could be worth monitoring when he truly flips to bullish posture, as that may be the time to consider taking profits.

David Merkel

For what it is worth, I remember Ed Hyman of ISI Group saying that he only worries about recession when the ISM goes below 47. My memory could be faulty, though.

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