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« Government Conspiracies and Your Money | Main | ETF Update: A Nugget of KOL Defies Shrinking ETF Breadth »

June 05, 2008


Nofel Izz

thanks a lot for the information, I guess I need to visit those links that you have provided.. Looks cool!

Bill aka NO DooDahs!

Interesting thought: many pundits were discussing "errors" in the denominator of the unemployment number, stating that the rate of unemployement was artificially held down by a lack of participation in the labor market. Today's report included a rather large increase in labor market participation, spiking the rate. Unemployed as a percentage of the general population had less change.

Do you suppose those pundits will choose to crow now, or do you think they will view increased labor force participation as a sign of (1) driving wages down and decreasing pressure on CPI et al, and (2) sign of increased potential for GDP growth in the next year?

My bet is on them crowing.

Bill aka NO DooDahs!

I typically get blank stares from actuaries when I tell them there's no mathematical basis for credibility-weighting an indicator; the proper method would be to use credibility to provide a confidence interval around their point estimate.

Unfortunately, such would not be good sales technique for the value of actuarial services to the company management, and nobody in management wants to hear their actuary say that "I'm 90% certain the PPA program needs between -2.5% and +7.5% of rate increases." Let's not mention loss reserves.

That being said, Beary provides multiple predictions every week, always bearish on the economy or the market, only sometimes bullish on individual stocks/ETFs, which are rarely mentioned on his FREE blog.

Also, a trading position IS a prediction, at least in the statistical sense.

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