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« Temptation and Greed: Lessons from Sports | Main | ETF Update: Nuclear Takes the Lead »

May 29, 2008



Black - Let me begin by saying that I value your continuing contributions to comments. I am not trying to generate a "boo-yah" nation here.

With regard to Malpass, who will not be continuing with the "new" Bear, I have a sharply different conclusion. I renew my continuing invitation to call for a conversation on this subject, since I cannot take the time to fight it out in the comments. I replied to your listed email address, so please call.

The portrayal of the Malpass record has been seriously distorted in the blogosphere. I have read his reports every week for years. He has effectively called many concepts and many market turns.

It is unfair to take, out of context, old quotes without citing developments. We should expect economists to change views with new data. Malpass has done that, unlike many others who stick to a perma-bear or perma-bull orientation. Change in opinion is OK, and desired.

Thanks again for your participation, and I hope to talk soon.



"Doh! That was Black Vegetable I was calling on!
Dear Dave, blush, no aspersions to you :)"

No worries, is clear that your confusion is not limited to the sources of posts.....

When even the perpetually deluded David Malpass admits that the US has been in a "recession like" state since 2006, it's well past time to accept that this is an economy in deep doo-doo.....


The first two presented both had clear manipulation pf the data, this could be used to discern what they felt most needed to be massaged to make the point.

The more neutral presentation of data was made by the party that offered no concrete guidance and had no axe to grind.


Doh! That was Black Vegetable I was calling on!
Dear Dave, blush, no aspersions to you :)


What, did the data not confirm your prejudices so you have to grouse?
No matter how much you deflect and contort the information, it defies those (you?) who so gleefully pronounced us Dead in a recession we didn't yet recognize way back last fall. That was, uhhh, lets see, how many quarters ago?

The doomsayers were wrong and continue to be wrong, are you big enough to admit it?

Let's give some credit to the companies across the nation that have suffered the same info-blizzard we have, and have adjusted as intelligently and compassionately as they know how.

I toast them every one, congratulate them and hope for their every success.

And to the doom and gloomers: Pptthhhhhhh!



Be careful, there are many "experts" out there. You must read their interpretations with a grain of salt. You never know what motivates them torturing the data to find something in line with their agenda. I bet that Barry Ritholt is biting his nails now and sitting in the house of pain after his wrong sided call to "go crazy short" in March of this year.

You must develop independent thinking. Good traders and investors tend to be independent thinkers. They are not influenced by what their neighbors say, what some guru says on television, or even something that might distract them from their method of trading. Instead, top professionals will have a method that generates low-risk ideas, manages the trade to cut losses short and let profits run, and have a position-sizing algorithm to help them meet their objectives. What someone else says about the market or their positions will not influence them at all.

Good luck!


Data interpretation is not an easy task. The challenges include, no doubt, the challenges of accuracy and validity of the data. But yet the biggest challenge may be in how the data is interperted and how the interpretations are used to make critical decisions. As I continue on my journey into the stock martket I am feeling almost "overwhelmed" by all the data. But, I think the goal is to shift through it and determine which data is critical in helping me to reach my investment goals.


"it "feels" like a recession. I wonder where that feeling comes from? Mass media, maybe?"

Get out of that gated community much?


I think it is a matter of being able to interpret the data objectively without bias. David Rosenberg always finds something to “strip” from GDP to paint a gloomy picture (strip defense spending, strip inventories, strip exports, strip consumer spending, strip business investment…) If the stripping does not work to produce the gloomy picture, he injects government conspiracy theories about the government underreporting the inflation.

Barry Ritholtz is an opinionated and self-deceiving perma-bear lawyer pretending to be an economist with extremely poor predictive record. He has been predicting recessions and “secular bear markets” since 2003. He is consistently wrong. Can you name at least one of his predictions when he was right? Dow 6800 in 2006? Multiple recessions in 2007? And now “positive GDP” recession in 2008?

Briefing economists have been the most objective and accurate.

I do not know Gary Smith and cannot comment.


Not to worry if we are in a recession, Yesterday I heard a financial commentator state that even if the economy was still in positive growth, it "feels" like a recession. I wonder where that feeling comes from? Mass media, maybe?

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