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« TCA-ETF Update | Main | What the Bear Stearns resolution tells us about the Fed »

March 14, 2008



And thus Jeremy Grantham's prediction of at least one major bank going belly-up comes true probably well ahead of schedule.


I think the only safe style of trading right now (aside from sitting in cash and doing nothing) is to VERY slowly scale in to weakness and wait for the inevitable ramps up (no stops, thus the VERY), still staying mostly in cash. Take profits relatively quickly.


The long run implications of BSC equity holders taking a massive haircut (or going to zero) is no increase in moral hazard. In fact, the animal spirits will be leashed rather tightly subsequent to the Fed's response, which, to me seems appropriate even if distasteful, expensive, and messy.

But it's certainly not bullish and it certainly shows the last few years have had much financial recklessness that will have to be washed out.

Northern Rock wasn't a bottom either, I agree that this has few positive short run implications.


What a great blog and some great advice to live by. I couldnt agree with the group more that consumer confidence is at an all time low.



The sentiment is very correctly covered. There seems to be a ~18 year cycle of consumer confidence and we're very close to the low again. Things compare to late 1990/early 1991.


great site, lot of inspiration for my work. thanks

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