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« Market Response to Recessions | Main | Do they ring a gong at the bottom? »

January 16, 2008



Bryan -

I do plan to work more on agenda setting, and I am collecting cases.

By the way, John Kingdon was one of my favorite professors in grad school and a member of my dissertation committee.

Thanks for encouraging me on this path.


Bryan Wendon

Jeff, thank you very much for the reply. You did indeed make an excellent call on FNM and I should have acknowledged that.

When you have time, it would be great to hear more about applying public policy ideas on agenda setting to the markets. You have mentioned its potential in the past. The work done by people like Frank Baumgartner, Bryan Jones and John Kingdon seems to offer new ways understanding and predicting major changes in markets.


Bryan -

Good question. First, I do not recommend public policy because I have a stock position. I choose stocks that I expect to benefit from what I see happening. In the case of FNM, I could just sell and move on -- happily with a profit.

The economic data, as I have observed, are not in recession ranges, although the dating process -- well that is a future article.

Despite this, there is a danger coming from a crisis of confidence. It comes from a drumbeat of commentary about recession chances, poor understanding by individual investors, and the apparent verification of the stock market.

It is a classic time for strong leadership. The actual plan I described is more of a scorecard to let us watch with a little perspective.

Thanks for your comment.



Very good site. Thank you!!!

Bryan Wendon

Hi Jeff, I thought you were bullish about the possibilities of avoiding a recession? Now I see you're calling for a Marshall Plan for the US! What gives?

Nonetheless, I like the different perspective that your blog offers and I can't argue with campaigning for government intervention to sure up a stock that you own. I've got lots of stocks that need that kind of help at the moment.

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