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« The Three Big Stories | Main | ETF Update: Are you missing the rally? »

September 26, 2007



Thank you very much Jeff. Your blog remains one of my favorites and a must read. Keep up the great work!

Bill aka NO DooDahs!

It's also fun to compare how the pundits treated falling (rising) 10-yr rates over the last year.

I had a blast searching through past GDP predictions in general.


While I do not think we're going into a recession and while I'm not particularly fond of the yield curve as an indicator, it would only be fair to say that in the past the yield curve had normalized by the time the recession had started. So those who DO believe in the yield curve indicator, are still consistent in saying the recession signal has been given.

You can check out historical yield curves here:

Take a look at the yield curve throughout 2000 and then take a look at it in March of 2001, the month the recession started.


I for one am looking forward to a world where the yield curve actually does. The flat yield curve for the last half dozen years is probably another factor for the recent credit meltdown. Now the masses can go back to buying high cost 30 yr. fixed mortgages and the more sophisticated or daring can flirt with the short end for a better yield.

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