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« Getting it Right about Greenspan | Main | Bears Prepare for Fox Business News »

September 30, 2007



I think there a great disparity between the two. Though they maybe both games of chance since they involve probabilities where you put money at risk with the hope of a return, and both can make your hard earned savings vanish when you bet wrong. The difference boils down to one simple concept that sounds intimidating but is actually easy to understand – mathematical expectation.

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Does the House have the advantage in the stock market? LOL. I guess if the House is the SP500, then the answer is yes since most folks who do anything other than buy and hold end up underperforming the SP500.

Plus, no free drinks at the stock market casino.

If the long term average of the SP500 annualizes to an 8-10% return per year, then the consistancy of returns is there assuming a long-term time horizon. Even though past results can't predict future returns. The rub comes when folks try to beat that "boring" 8-10% return; they end up underperforming it.

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