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« Amusing Links | Main | Housing and Recessions: A Proposed Relationship »

February 19, 2007

Comments

Muckdog

While we're all busy watching the Fed and rates, look how much deficit spending is going on at the federal, state and local levels. Maybe the charge card is fueling the economy...

oldprof

Hi Kettle -

Thanks for your observations. If you remember Rosemary Woods, you must be as old as I am! I started writing "A Dash" with a book in mind. Most pieces fit into my outline. While I am committed to writing, other business or personal matters may take precedence. Sometimes I serve as a securities expert on legal cases, often writing lengthy reports. A case last year went to trial, and took a lot of my time.

As to being bullish or bearish -- I go where conditions and my methods take me. We did very well in the 1999-2001 era.

Thanks again for your interest.

David Merkel

I have been saying over at RealMoney that it is good to listen to the broad macroeconomic problems, but not to let it affect your investing much. Moderate optimism wins most of the time.

Aside from that, earnings yields are high relative to bond yields, and there seems to be no lack of willingness of parties willing to take equity out of the private markets through LBOs and buybacks. At least it will work in the short run, but there is a limit somewhere...

kettle black

You seem to delight in pooh poohing bearish outlooks. That's fine & fair. I was curious to see what you were saying in Apr/May 2006 let alone Dec 99 & 1st half 2000. I noticed a Rosemary Woods-like gap in your archives between Feb 06 & June 06. Hmmm. No other gap exists.

oldprof

Thanks, Bo. You are quite correct about needing other approaches for short-term timing, if that is your objective (as it is for our trading accounts).

Bo

Excellent analysis. After reading your article on valuation, I did a test myself on the earning yield on the major developed markets going back about 20 years. I found while it is not a day to day timing tool, but it gives you a convincing bigger picture. Right now all the markets are still in good shape with Europe, UK and Japan the most attractive valuation.

Keep up the good work!

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