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« Wallstrip: A Peter Lynch Agenda? | Main | Payroll Employment Feb. »

February 28, 2007


Barry Ritholtz

ECRI's long term track record is excellent -- they are the reason why I have been saying "The odds of a recession are rising" rather than saying "We are very likely to have a recession"

David Merkel

Great post. The earnings yield of the market is cheap relative to corporate interest rates, and ECRI's long term track record is excellent. Leaving aside homebuilders and certain dodgy financials, I see good reason to be bullish here.

Bryan Wendon

Jeff, I think this is an excellent post with very useful links. Keeping a sense of proportion and perspective at times like these is hard for those, like myself, who started trading during the last 4 years. It's all too easy to be swayed by the bears chorus and to forget to look for good value buying opportunities.


Eh, we're due for a correction. I'm happy to let this thing play out and then charge in as close to the lows as I can get. Not there yet... I don't see a recession, either. ECRI has been pretty good with their analysis, so glad to see I'm on their page!


I agree that when ECRI says no recession, it is not wise to bet against that -- despite what the bond markets seem to imply. It was interesting though that the dollar was not perceived to be a flight-to-quality bet yesterday:

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