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« Respect versus Arrogance | Main | Long-term Sentiment: 2001 to Date »

January 11, 2007

Comments

Tom Drake

Dash of Insight indeed!

A good friend just pointed me your way, and I am grateful. I thought I had read it all on the FED Model, but I hadn't.

I grew tired of Hussman's incessant criticism of the model and his persistent losses (mainly losses of opportunity, to be fair).

I have mainly relied upon some personal tweaks of more or less traditional sentiment data for the short term and some econoic data for the longer term. But now I see I simply must pay attention to the Model.

I no longer have access to Yardenmi's version nor a subscrption to Thomson data. I am a personal investor. Do you have any advice on either an accessible updating model site or the source of data?

Thanks so much for your insights.

muckdog

Is there a lot of gloom out there? How are you measuring gloom? Looking at a moving average (50dma) of put/call ratio which to me doesn't show gloom or exuberance right now. But the Investors Intelligence survey indicates quite a bit of optimism out there. (These two are my favorite sentiment indicators).

Bill a.k.a. NO DooDahs

Valuation metrics are a long-term sentiment indicator for indivdual stocks as well. Value investing is a mean-reverting sentiment TRADE with a long payoff horizon.

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