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« A Helpful Guide for Those "Waiting" to Buy Stocks | Main | Investing for 2007: A Review of Valuation Issues »

December 26, 2006



Why "it's different this time"

Gov't stats are fudged: real rates are zero to negative.

Global imbalances are unprecedented. The correction won't be pretty.

Profits as a share of the economy are historically high, wages low. Mean reversion will ruin all those earnings rosy forecasts.

Am I a "back door modeler?" Yeah, but if the purpose of a model is to use history to guide future decisions, what's wrong with that?

The bears have a case. The bulls are blowing smoke. The issue is timing--it's frustrating to feel you're right but that you may continue to look stupid for several years before being finally vindicated.

It appears the administration will move heaven and earth to forstall correction until after we get a Democrat in the White House in 08. Then the Republicans will say "see what happens when you vote those guys in?"

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