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« Cognitive Bias of Pundits: A Challenge for Barry | Main | Holiday Retail Sales: Just What the Doctor Ordered? »

December 22, 2006



Barry -- Thanks for stopping by with your observations. And you are right -- if you are responsible for the ever-present Roubini on CNBC it is a heavy responsibility indeed!

At least he gives you a little cover on the flank ;)



S. Shopkorn is quite correct in the interpretation of the ISM. This is exactly why we put out the ISM alert on two occasions.

Barry Ritholtz

BTW, if you really want to blame me for something, I introduced Roubini to Kudlow -- so I am indirectly responsible for his face time!

Next up, is my plan to get bloggers more TV exposure (really).

s shopkorn

ISM doesn't foreshadow a recession unless it gets to 42 or below . At these levels the economy will be at 2%

Barry Ritholtz

A few thoughts:

I see a very bifurcated economy: Corporate Earnings have been very robust -- while consumer balance sheets are pressured.

Retail is also split -- high end has done very well - lower end less so. Target continues to do well, Wal-Mart, Best Buy Circuit City has to give stuff away at break even or loss leaders (Maybe they will make it up in volume!)

NYC is jammed with tourists and shoppers. Lots of Euro and UK shoppers taking advantage of the weak dollar.

Based on what major retailers have siad, and the overall increase in credit card usage, Xmas shopping won't be a disaster, but it won't be terrific either --

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