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« Doug Kass, CNBC, and the Dog Whisperer | Main | Powerful Negative Symbols and a New Concept: The Glide Path »

August 13, 2006

Comments

oldprof

Barry -- Thanks for taking the time to stop by. Everyone is trying to get edge. In your article on the economists you say that they are "finally getting a clue" because they are moving toward your projection.

I am more modest. I think that the consensus of economists is better at predicting than I am as an individual.

Everyone has trouble at turning points -- not just economists.

Barry Ritholtz

Note that these same 56 Economists in the Fall of 2000 projected a GDP of 3.1%; It turned out to be between 0 and -0.75%.

Forecasting is not what economists do well -- especially at turning points

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