Consider the following data series:

                                               

Aug-06	93
Sep-06	257
Oct-06	155
Nov-06	172
Dec-06	101
Jan-07	204
Feb-07	49
Mar-07	139
Apr-07	184
May-07	44
Jun-07	107
Jul-07	138

Let us suppose that these figures represented the monthly change in payroll employment over the next year.  One can readily imagine the interpretation that might be placed upon the August number, due to be released tomorrow, that job growth is weakening dramatically.  The big increase in September might frighten those worried about future Fed policy, but delight those going on TV to talk about the President's economic policy.  The October number, announced right before the election, would also be helpful.  And so forth through the year.

Here are the data in graphical form. (click to enlarge)

The data series was created using the advanced tools at The Payroll Employment Game site.  I simply specified the truth growth rate as a constant 130,000 jobs (the number Fed Chair Bernanke thinks we need to maintain employment and reasonable economic growth).  The resulting series is typical of the variation you would get from the BLS establishment survey.  The actual mean for the period is 137K and the average absolute deviation from "truth" was about 50,000 jobs.

I did it a few more times with very similar results.  Readers should go to the game site and give it a try. You will have an advantage over many of the experts you read about our see on TV!

(Next month we may make this and other experiments a bit easier to try).