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« Economic Bloggers See Modest Growth, Modest Risk | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Bernanke Change Course? »

September 12, 2013

Comments

lou

Paulnovell pretty well says it all. Hussman Funds performance is abysmal. If he is eating his own cooking, there is something clearly wrong with his cooking.

John Mauldin appears to be a huckster if there ever was one. For the most part, he articulates the obvious. I have found his investment advice to be un-useable.

Joe Facer

My takeaway is that each individual chart, table, or data point is a single value. It may be absolutely solid in and of itself, but it exists in a sea of other data. Unless you can make it a thread in a tapestry of supporting, qualifying, and quantifying data, you have only a tiny portion of the picture, and of questionable value in understanding the entire picture.

Until you can personally arrive at the same place by an independent route to confirm the thesis, or until you can dismantle the thesis by bringing in additional data, you have to treat it as a possible when it comes to investing.

Paulnovell

Don't get why investors still listen to Hussman. 10 year CAGR for his fund is -0.2%. And he's still charging over 1% per year.

Johan Lindén

You are correct that there are a bunch of naysayers who often have a negative outlook and make strange comparisons.

But don't forget that you also talk about increasing interest rates as positive comparing it with ancient data. How about comparing it with todays data of the biggest and rapidly increasing US debt?

Sure, if the deficit gets balanced that might not be a problem, but that's a HUGE if.

I'm still a fan of your site though, so I hope you can take some constructive criticism. Keep up the good work!

Kevin Tan

i agree. looking at the chart, it's easy to say the market will go down, but current corp health is better than it was in 2000. the selling in 2007 was from illiquidity fears in the money market. as long as tyere is no freeze in liquidity ( bond offerings are plentiful and libor-ois is fine) the mkt will just adjust to exogenous input as they come. on shorter time frames, how many times have you seen breakouts from channels when it "should" have reversed becos a line was there. lots. not to say it may not correct from here (valuation isnt great here for many companies and there are macro concerns too), but it's possible we might break through higher. really depends on what new factors enter thr picture. bearish scenarios are plenty but those may provide opportunity to go long.

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