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« Beating Buy and Hold: Understanding Earnings | Main | Weighing the Week Ahead: Are You Ready for Action? »

July 20, 2013



Like others, I first wanted to express my appreciation for your blog. Unlike others (seemingly), my appreciation is mainly predicated on a ‘devil’s advocate’ perspective. As you say in each WTWA, “readers often disagree with my conclusions”. And that is the camp in which I most often find myself. I rarely agree with your conclusions based on the data presented. (perhaps more precisely, I am seldom able to decipher a true ‘conclusion’ from most of your writings; more often, it seems that diplomatic, squishy statements unfortunately prevail over convicted, concise conclusions). All of that said, your blog remains a vital source for me, as the ideas are usually thought-provoking and the breadth of topics referenced in the WTWA is usually fairly comprehensive.

This week’s disagreement/quibble (I do not comment every time I disagree with something, lest you think I do not appreciate the blog to the extent that I truly do) results from your characterization of the current backdrop for fixed income: “An increase in interest rates will prove very costly for these investments. It has already started…Other yield-based investments have also suffered, and it is not over.”

First, I think it can be compellingly argued the increase in rates is nearly over. My conviction in this regard is only reinforced by the relative weakness of the 2 links provided to support your contention that “it is not over”. The LearnBonds link is downright laughable in its lack of rigor. The Weisenthal article, while more interesting, still only calls for an extremely gradual move in rates over a 3-year time frame, with rates ending 2013 only 20 bp’s higher than they are today. Again, the demographic demand for fixed income investments, I would argue, makes 4% 10-yr yields a welcome development. And for this reason, I think any rise in yields will be moderate and muted.


Jeff- Yes, your blog is great, and more specifically, your insight on economics is among the best.

Thank you.



Hi Jeff,

Same thing here from Quebec city. I've got a lot experience and your work is very important for me. Thank you for your time and effort.



Hi Jeff,
Regarding what you've written under Appreciation, let me just tell you that I belong to that silent majority who read and greatly appreciate your work, but do not usually comment.
Your blog is my most valuable source (and I have been following financial media and trading for years now), and it is unique in the financial blogosphere (as I'm sure you know).
Sorry I don't write this more often.
Thank you for your effort, wisdom and diligence.

Jerusalem, Israel
(P.S. bet you didn't know you have fans in the Middle East :) )

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